U.S. Elections Are Key to Mexico's Strategy, UNAM Experts Say

Mexico should maintain a long-term strategy and strengthen its ties with both Republicans and Democrats, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, specialists from the Center for Research on North America (CISAN) at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) said.

Silvia Núñez García explained that many issues in the bilateral relationship, including border security, pass through the U.S. Congress; for that reason, changes in the House of Representatives and the Senate can alter the negotiating space available to Mexico.

"The institutions remain strong," said Núñez García, who anticipated that President Donald Trump's reaction to possible Republican losses at the polls could be very intense; she argued that the process could become "a new watershed" for U.S. democracy.

Estefanía Cruz Lera said the elections could serve as an institutional counterweight to Trump's policies, including the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE); she also anticipated greater citizen participation and cited estimates putting early voting at 34 percent.

The November 3 elections will choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 senators and 36 governors; the results will define legislative majorities and the political landscape in key states.

Oliver Santín Peña noted that part of the electorate sees the vote as an opportunity to influence the direction of the government and highlighted youth participation; for Mexico, he added, trade policy will be central because decisions on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) also pass through the U.S. Congress.

Santín argued that the trilateral formula of the trade agreement suits Mexico and Canada, though he warned that Trump's Republican government is seeking to change that relationship; he also noted that the three countries' stance toward China will carry weight in the discussion about the economic future of North America.