Analysts Raise Mexico’s Growth Forecast for 2025 and 2026

For the third consecutive month, private sector analysts surveyed by the Banco de México (Banxico) have upwardly revised their growth projections for the Mexican economy, signaling a more optimistic outlook compared to earlier forecasts.

According to the Survey of Private Sector Economic Specialists, August 2025, Mexico’s GDP is expected to grow 0.46% in 2025, higher than the 0.20% forecast in July and the 0.08% projected in May. This marks three straight upward revisions.

For 2026, analysts predict growth of 1.34%, up from the previous estimate of 1.1%.

In contrast, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) maintains its own forecast for 2025 at a range between 1.5% and 2.3%, significantly more optimistic than the private sector outlook.

The survey also reflected downward adjustments in inflation expectations. For 2025, headline inflation is expected to reach 3.95%, slightly below the 4.05% forecast in the previous report. Core inflation —which excludes volatile items— remained unchanged at 4.11%.

Looking ahead to 2026, both headline and core inflation projections improved marginally: headline inflation moved from 3.75% to 3.74%, while core inflation slipped from 3.68% to 3.67%.

The Mexican peso also received positive news. Analysts expect the peso to close 2025 at 19.49 per U.S. dollar, compared to the 19.71 projected in July. For 2026, the peso is forecast at 20.02 per dollar, down from the previous 20.14.

Overall, the latest projections suggest a scenario of modest but improving growth, stable inflation, and a resilient peso. Still, analysts caution that the recovery remains fragile and will depend heavily on external factors such as U.S. monetary policy and broader global economic conditions.