IMF Forecasts 1.5% Economic Growth for Mexico in 2026

By Pamela Cruz. Mexican Press Agency.

Mexico’s economy is expected to grow 1.5 percent in 2026, according to the latest outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), amid a context of weak domestic momentum and heightened global uncertainty.

The IMF noted that economic growth in 2025 will be among the weakest since 2020, when Mexico’s economy contracted by 8.5 percent. Based on that performance, the IMF maintained its 2026 growth forecast at 1.5 percent and upwardly revised its projection for 2027 slightly, from 2.0 to 2.1 percent.

At the global level, the IMF reported that the world economy expanded by 3.3 percent last year and revised its 2026 forecast up from 3.1 to 3.3 percent, while maintaining its 2027 projection at 3.2 percent, pointing to a scenario of moderate global growth.

It explained that this outlook reflects a balance between downside risks and supportive factors. On the risk side, it highlighted persistent trade uncertainty and shifts in trade policies. On the positive side, it cited continued investment in technology and artificial intelligence, as well as fiscal and monetary stimulus measures implemented across several economies.

The IMF warned that global trade growth is expected to slow to 2.6 percent in 2026, down from the previous 4.1 percent projection. It also noted that the effective U.S. tariff rate currently stands at 18.5 percent, compared with 3.5 percent in the rest of the world.

For the United States, the IMF projected economic growth of 2.4 percent in 2026 and 2.0 percent in 2027, supported by fiscal incentives and lower interest rates. This performance remains particularly relevant for Mexico, given the deep trade ties and productive integration between the two economies within North America.