IMF upwardly revises growth forecasts for Mexico: 1% in 2025 and 1.5% for 2026

By SPR Informa. Mexican Press Agency

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upwardly revised its growth forecasts for Mexico, both for this year and 2026. This increase also improved the outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, and ruled out the possibility of US trade policy dragging the Mexican economy into a recession.

In its flagship report, the World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF maintained its growth forecast for Mexico at 1% for this year, higher than the 0.2% estimated in July and the 0.3% contraction forecast in April, although still below the 1.7% projected in January.

The WEO added that Mexico’s monetary policy assumptions are consistent with inflation converging towards the central bank’s (Banco de México) target over the projected period.

For 2026, the WEO anticipates growth of 1.5% for Mexico, slightly above the 1.4% previously estimated, while for Latin America and the Caribbean it forecasts an advance of 2.3%.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is projected to remain stable at 2.4% in 2025 and fall slightly to 2.3% in 2026. The forecast for 2025 was revised upward by 0.4 percentage points from April, due to tariff reductions in most countries in the region and stronger-than-expected economic numbers.

The IMF acknowledged that its projections reflect a significant, though not massive, impact of the policy change on the economic outlook, raising its forecast for global GDP growth from 2.8% (estimated in April) to 3.2%, according to the WEO released today.

The IMF noted a “significant, albeit moderate impact” of the global trade policy changes. For the USMCA countries, the United States will continue to lead with 2% growth, followed by Canada (1.2%) and Mexico (1%).

However, the IMF warned that trade uncertainty persists, due to the lack of lasting agreements and the potential effect of tariffs on prices, investment, and consumption.

However, tariffs are a long way from returning to their 2024 levels. Uncertainty surrounding trade policy remains high in the absence of clear, transparent, and durable agreements among trading partners, and with attention beginning to shift from the final level of tariffs to their impact on prices, investment, and consumption,” said the IMF.