Mexican industry’s immediate reactions to tariffs

Mexico knows threats are Trump’s policy. It’s avoiding knee jerk retaliation.

Claudia Sheinbaum’s words were almost fighting but mostly calm and collected during her usual morning presser. She announced that Mexico would be “retaliating with tariff and non-tariff measures” to the imposition of tariffs from the US, but promised to announce them in front of a large crowd in Mexico City’s central square on Sunday.

It was added that Sheinbaum would be calling the US president on Thursday. Beyond that, the rest of the conference focused on the corrupt origins of the fentanyl crisis within the US itself. She mentioned that, by the US’s own data, seizures of fentanyl were down by 50% and migrant arrests by US authorities were at all time lows.

Mexico is still very much in negotiating mode. As opposed to China and Canada, it has taken a cautious approach to the 25% tariffs slapped on all Mexican exports to the US yesterday.

Mexican business is also surprisingly calm and collected. Of the dozen Mexican exporters and trade experts that The Mexico Political Economy spoke to in the wake of Trump’s tariffs, the mood is overwhelmingly confident. Since last month, during which tariffs were delayed, measures were taken. Now that the tariffs are on, companies must now hold their noses and see how long they can keep their breath.

“There have been questions but the continued belief is that general tariffs between Mexico and the US won’t last,” Kallie Parchman, head of partnerships at Prima.ai, a company enabling North American trade, told The Mexico Political Economist.

But make no mistake; no matter how cool the government and business play it, a lot of the damage has been done. Threats have done much of the dirty work that tariffs were meant to do. How Mexico deals, not with the actual tax on its exports to the US, but with the brutal outcomes of uncertainty, is what matters most in the medium term.