INEGI early indicator points to 3.7% Mexican growth in September

Mexico's economic activity grew an estimated 3.7% in September compared with the same month a year earlier, the strongest annual reading since September 2023, according to the Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica (IOAE) that INEGI, the national statistics institute, released on Oct. 20, 2026.

The IOAE is an econometric estimate that INEGI publishes about five weeks before the official Global Indicator of Economic Activity, or IGAE, the monthly proxy for gross domestic product. INEGI also revised its August estimate upward, to 3.2% annual growth from 2.5%, El Universal reported on Oct. 21. Measured against August, activity rose 0.1% in September, down from 0.5% the previous month, according to La Jornada.

The reading matters beyond Mexico's borders. Mexico is the United States' largest trading partner, and its monthly swings feed into cross-border supply chains, freight volumes and the production plans of manufacturers on both sides of the border. Services, about two-thirds of Mexican output, grew an estimated 4.0% annually, while industrial activity, the segment most exposed to foreign trade, rose 3.6%, El Universal reported. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, attributed part of the strength to higher public investment and a sharp rise in computer equipment exports. For families in both countries, the pace of Mexican activity shapes hiring, wages and remittance flows.

INEGI's estimate put the activity index at 108.4 points (2018=100), which El Financiero columnist Jeanette Leyva described as the highest level in the series' history; the column also cited a 95% confidence interval of 2.6% to 4.9%. The quarterly sequence has shifted: annual growth was 0.4% in the first quarter and 1.8% in the second, and averaging July's official figure with the August and September estimates puts the third quarter near 3.4%. The monthly pace has cooled, from 0.8% in July to 0.5% in August and 0.1% in September.

INEGI is scheduled to publish the official IGAE for August on Oct. 23, and the next IOAE release is set for Nov. 19, according to UnoTV. Both readings will show whether the third-quarter acceleration holds through the end of the year.

Sources: El Inegi prevé que economía creció 3.7% · El Indicador Oportuno estimó que economía mexicana mantuvo ritmo de expansión en agosto y septiembre · La economía mexicana metió tercera · Inegi estima que economía de México creció 3.7% en septiembre; avance mensual sería de apenas 0.1%

This story was written with the help of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.